Home Business Investors look for hints of inflation in earnings in the week ahead

Investors look for hints of inflation in earnings in the week ahead

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Source: CNBC

Earnings will be the major focus for investors in the week ahead, as they home in on whether rising costs are squeezing margins and signaling a build in inflationary pressures.

From Coca-Cola and IBM to Johnson & Johnson and Netflix, investors will hear from a broad swath of corporate America.

So far, with one week in, companies are beating earnings estimates by a wide margin of more than 84%, according to Refinitiv.

This three-month period is the first to be compared to year earlier profits that were affected by the pandemic. Profit growth for the S&P 500 is a stunning 30.2% for the quarter so far, based on actual reports and estimates.

That makes it the best three-month period since the third quarter of 2010, according to FactSet.

Signs of margin pressures?

Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC, said she is watching the coming week’s earnings for signs of margin pressures from higher commodity prices, supply chain issues and other cost factors.

“Those big forces that are threatening margins right now don’t really apply to financials. They apply more to industrial companies, the material companies and consumer companies,” she said.

“I think [sectors] like the industrials will give you color on margins,” Calvasina added. “Margins really are the big question mark going forward. I’m definitely watching and listening to see what companies are going to say about taxes.”

President Joe Biden has proposed raising corporate taxes to 28% from 21% to help pay for his infrastructure plan.

While the fate of the tax hike is still not clear, the increase in other costs is apparent. Fuel costs have risen sharply with a 30% rise in oil prices since the beginning of the year. Lumber prices in the futures market are at an all-time high and copper futures are up about 17% year-to-date.

Calvasina said companies face a headwind and a tailwind.

“Companies are saying we found new ways to cut costs. When revenues come back, margins are going to explode to the upside,” she said. “Some of the Covid-related costs will come down. Those are some of the positives.”

But not every company will see those benefits. “We could start to see wage pressures come back. Rising commodity costs — increases in PPI and increases in CPI — those are negatives for margins,” Calvasina said, referring to the producer price and consumer price indexes.

Searching for hints of inflation

Economic rebound

Watching bonds

“The 10-year will now trade in the 1.50% to 1.75% trading range,” said Boockvar.

“It’ll break below that if inflation is transitory and it will break above if it’s proven to be otherwise,” he added. “I think we priced in the last inflation stats and then we’ll take into account what the real world is saying, from companies.”

Week ahead calendar